| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.5% | 52% | +4.2% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 61.9% | 37.9% |
| logistic | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| Aryna Sabalenka | Mirra Andreeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1957 | 1901 |
| Surface Elo | 1957 | 1901 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 09 Nov | H | Karolina Muchova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Ann Li | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Nikola Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Renata Zarazua | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Nikola Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Nov | H | Elina Svitolina | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Qinwen Zheng | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Nikola Bartunkova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Daria Snigur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Mar 2025 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1 - 2 | Mirra Andreeva |
| 12 Jan 2025 | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Mirra Andreeva |
| 30 Dec 2024 | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Mirra Andreeva |
| 27 May 2024 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1 - 2 | Mirra Andreeva |
| 22 Apr 2024 | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Mirra Andreeva |
| 24 Apr 2023 | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | Mirra Andreeva |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.94 | 51.5% | 11 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.91 | 52.4% | 11 Nov 06:15 |