| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.5% | 25% | +22.3% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.7% | 84% | -7.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.7% | 32% | +28.2% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 38% | +17.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 24.6% | 25.8% | 49.5% |
| xgboost | 39.8% | 24.6% | 35.6% |
| logistic | 29.6% | 29.0% | 41.3% |
| Notts County | Nottingham Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1475 | 1672 |
| Surface Elo | 1475 | 1672 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Oxford | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Oxford | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Grimsby | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Reading | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Reading | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Crystal Palace | 1 - 3 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Crystal Palace | 1 - 3 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Peterborough United | 5 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Burton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Coventry | 0 - 1 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.99 | 50.2% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.48 | 67.6% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 13 Oct 06:15 |