| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.7% | 39% | +11.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.9% | 76% | -0.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.5% | 54% | +10.3% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.5% | 54% | -3.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.8% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.5% | 26.8% | 30.6% |
| xgboost | 45.0% | 23.1% | 31.8% |
| logistic | 46.4% | 28.6% | 25.0% |
| Notts County | Oxford | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1493 | 1515 |
| Surface Elo | 1493 | 1515 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | H | Grimsby | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Reading | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Reading | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Bradford | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Huddersfield | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Oct | A | Exeter | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cambridge | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Burton | 3 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Leicester | 4 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.75 | 36.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.55 | 39.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.91 | 52.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.86 | 53.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |