| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 74.2% | 76% | -1.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 26.7% | 73.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 23.0% | 77.0% |
| logistic | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| Kyrian Jacquet | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1735 | 1922 |
| Surface Elo | 1735 | 1922 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.33 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Andrey Rublev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | A | Fabian Marozsan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Fabian Marozsan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Kyrian Jacquet | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Sep | A | Rinky Hijikata | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Sep | H | Rinky Hijikata | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | Kyrian Jacquet |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.32 | 75.8% | 28 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.50 | 28.6% | 28 Sep 06:15 |