| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.7% | 49% | -4.1% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.1% | 80% | -5.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 58.0% | 66% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 60% | -6.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 38.7% | 26.2% | 35.1% |
| xgboost | 35.7% | 24.9% | 39.3% |
| logistic | 38.8% | 27.1% | 34.1% |
| Barrow | Scunthorpe | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1335 | 1438 |
| Surface Elo | 1335 | 1438 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 26 Sep | A | Southend | 4 - 2 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Southend | 4 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Aldershot | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Aldershot | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Solihull | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Hartlepool | 4 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Hartlepool | 4 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Hornchurch | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Hornchurch | 0 - 1 | L |
| 16 Sep | H | Boreham Wood | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Mar 2022 | Scunthorpe | 0 - 1 | Barrow |
| 19 Oct 2021 | Barrow | 1 - 1 | Scunthorpe |
| 16 Jan 2021 | Barrow | 1 - 0 | Scunthorpe |
| 15 Dec 2020 | Scunthorpe | 2 - 1 | Barrow |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.66 | 60.2% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 29 Sep 06:15 |