| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.0% | 52% | +0.7% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.7% | 46.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 52.1% | 47.8% |
| logistic | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Jay Clarke | Carlo Alberto Caniato | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1623 | 1600 |
| Surface Elo | 1623 | 1600 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | H | Giuseppe La Vela | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | John Sperle | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 1 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Giuseppe La Vela | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | John Sperle | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Tom Gentzsch | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Lorenzo Berto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Luka Mikrut | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Francesco Forti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Jay Clarke | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 1 - 0 | Jay Clarke |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.83 | 54.6% | 25 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.91 | 52.4% | 25 Sep 06:15 |