| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.9% | 81% | -10.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| logistic | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| Karolina Muchova | Caty McNally | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1907 | 1636 |
| Surface Elo | 1907 | 1636 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Diana Shnaider | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Caty McNally | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Nikola Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Naomi Osaka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Liudmila Samsonova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Yuliia Starodubtseva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Karolina Muchova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Yuliia Starodubtseva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Yue Yuan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Dayana Yastremska | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Caty McNally | 1 - 2 | Karolina Muchova |
| 03 Oct 2022 | Caty McNally | 2 - 1 | Karolina Muchova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.40 | 22.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.23 | 81.3% | 13 Oct 06:15 |