| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 36.6% | 61% | -24.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 69.8% | 80% | -10.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 52.4% | 79% | -26.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.7% | 42% | +12.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 49.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.6% | 30.2% | 33.2% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | ||
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | ||
| Newcastle | Hull | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1703 | 1612 |
| Surface Elo | 1703 | 1612 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 14 Sep | A | Leeds | 1 - 4 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Bournemouth | 2 - 2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Tottenham | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Liverpool | 2 - 2 | D |
| 24 May | A | Fulham | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Chelsea | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Aston Villa | 0 - 0 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | Coventry | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | Manchester United | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 May | H | Norwich | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 5.00 | 20.0% | 19 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 4.50 | 22.2% | 19 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 19 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 19 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.38 | 42.0% | 19 Sep 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.32 | 18.8% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.42 | 22.6% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.65 | 60.6% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.59 | 62.9% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 19 Sep 06:16 |