| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 88.4% | 96% | -7.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 87.7% | 12.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 92.6% | 7.4% |
| logistic | 82.8% | 17.2% |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2266 | 1809 |
| Surface Elo | 2266 | 1809 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Matteo Arnaldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Sep | A | Ben Shelton | 2 - 3 | L |
| 06 Sep | H | Tommy Paul | 3 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | James Duckworth | 1 - 3 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | Martin Landaluce | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct 2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| 04 Mar 2024 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| 28 Aug 2023 | Carlos Alcaraz | 3 - 0 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 12.50 | 8.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.04 | 96.2% | 02 Oct 06:15 |