| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 69.3% | 78% | -8.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| logistic | 69.4% | 30.6% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Naomi Osaka | Mia Pohankova | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1885 | 1618 |
| Surface Elo | 1885 | 1618 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 27 Oct | H | Jasmine Paolini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Karolina Muchova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | A | Sara Bejlek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Maria Timofeeva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Karolina Muchova | 1 - 2 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Tereza Valentova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Xiyu Wang | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Maria Sakkari | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Xiyu Wang | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Anna Bondar | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.85 | 26.0% | 28 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.28 | 78.1% | 28 Oct 06:15 |