| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 50.8% | 35% | +15.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.5% | 77% | -0.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 65.0% | 48% | +16.7% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 47.2% | 50% | -3.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 19.7% | 22.5% | 57.8% |
| xgboost | 39.0% | 22.8% | 38.3% |
| logistic | 31.6% | 30.6% | 37.8% |
| Ceuta | Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1437 | 1619 |
| Surface Elo | 1437 | 1619 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | H | Valladolid | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Valladolid | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Sep | A | Burgos | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Celta B | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Mallorca | 0 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Valencia | 3 - 2 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Pasaia KE | 2 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Mallorca | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Sep | H | Atlético Madrid | 0 - 3 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Elche | 3 - 2 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.82 | 54.9% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.96 | 51.0% | 26 Sep 06:15 |