OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-13
⚽ England Championship · Tuesday 13 October 2026, 18:45 UTC · finished
Millwall 1.60 0 - 1 2.00 Swansea
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 48.0%39%+8.7%✗ miss
DCHome or away 74.7%75%-0.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 62.5%54%+8.4%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 53.3%52%+1.6%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 53.6%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson43.7%28.5%27.8%
xgboost37.8%29.0%33.2%
logistic47.7%26.3%26.1%
Inputs the models saw
MillwallSwansea
Elo (pre-match)16361633
Surface Elo16361633
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.602.00
Form trend-0.10-0.70
Season points per game2.003.00
Season goals for / game1.502.00
Season goals against / game1.001.00
Rest days33
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W2 W · 3 D
Millwall: last 5
10 OctAPreston North End1 - 0W
10 OctAPreston1 - 0W
09 OctHWest Ham1 - 0W
19 SepHWest Ham2 - 2D
19 SepHWest Ham2 - 2D
Swansea: last 5
10 OctHNorwich2 - 1W
10 OctHNorwich2 - 1W
19 SepALincoln2 - 1W
19 SepALincoln2 - 1W
12 SepHBurnley3 - 1W
Head to head
04 Jan 2026Millwall2 - 1Swansea
27 Sep 2025Swansea1 - 1Millwall
26 Apr 2025Millwall1 - 0Swansea
26 Oct 2024Swansea0 - 1Millwall
04 May 2024Swansea0 - 1Millwall
30 Sep 2023Millwall0 - 3Swansea
14 Mar 2023Millwall2 - 1Swansea
16 Aug 2022Swansea2 - 2Millwall
05 Apr 2022Millwall0 - 1Swansea
15 Sep 2021Swansea0 - 0Millwall
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.8934.6%13 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.5728.0%13 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.4840.3%13 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9351.8%13 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.9252.1%13 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:03 UTC