OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-16
⚽ Netherlands Eredivisie · Friday 16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC · finished
Heerenveen 1.00 4 - 0 1.00 Excelsior
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 52.8%61%-8.2%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 78.2%83%-5.0%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 69.7%78%-7.9%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 67.0%69%-2.1%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.3%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson46.2%24.6%29.2%
xgboost55.7%23.4%20.9%
logistic54.4%25.9%19.7%
Inputs the models saw
HeerenveenExcelsior
Elo (pre-match)15701503
Surface Elo15701503
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.001.00
Form trend-0.100.60
Season points per game1.500.50
Season goals for / game2.001.50
Season goals against / game1.003.50
Rest days65
Head-to-head (last 10)5 W3 W · 2 D
Heerenveen: last 5
09 OctAPSV Eindhoven0 - 2L
09 OctAPSV Eindhoven0 - 2L
19 SepASparta Rotterdam4 - 0W
19 SepASparta Rotterdam4 - 0W
13 SepHTelstar0 - 0D
Excelsior: last 5
11 OctHGroningen1 - 5L
11 OctHGroningen1 - 5L
22 SepAZSV Sportlust 462 - 0W
19 SepAAjax2 - 2D
19 SepAAjax2 - 2D
Head to head
07 Mar 2026Excelsior1 - 2Heerenveen
04 Oct 2025Heerenveen2 - 1Excelsior
19 Jan 2024Excelsior3 - 0Heerenveen
23 Sep 2023Heerenveen0 - 3Excelsior
13 May 2023Heerenveen0 - 0Excelsior
05 Nov 2022Excelsior0 - 1Heerenveen
30 Mar 2019Heerenveen1 - 0Excelsior
22 Sep 2018Excelsior3 - 3Heerenveen
24 Feb 2018Heerenveen0 - 1Excelsior
16 Sep 2017Excelsior1 - 2Heerenveen
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away5.4018.5%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.8220.8%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.5763.7%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4369.9%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.9533.9%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:58 UTC