OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-07
⚽ England FA Cup · Saturday 07 November 2026, 15:00 UTC · finished
Crewe 1.40 2 - 1 0.20 AFC Wimbledon
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 45.9%41%+5.3%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 75.0%70%+5.0%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 63.3%56%+6.9%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 54.2%50%+4.0%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 55.6%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson45.1%28.7%26.2%
xgboost42.9%29.4%27.7%
logistic45.2%30.1%24.7%
Inputs the models saw
CreweAFC Wimbledon
Elo (pre-match)14781406
Surface Elo14781406
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.400.20
Form trend0.70-0.10
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W2 W · 6 D
Crewe: last 5
31 OctHBarnet1 - 1D
31 OctHBarnet1 - 1D
24 OctAChesterfield1 - 5L
24 OctAChesterfield1 - 5L
20 OctAExeter0 - 2L
AFC Wimbledon: last 5
31 OctAStockport1 - 2L
31 OctAStockport1 - 2L
27 OctHArsenal1 - 2L
24 OctHWycombe1 - 1D
24 OctHWycombe1 - 1D
Head to head
11 Feb 2025AFC Wimbledon3 - 0Crewe
28 Jan 2025Crewe1 - 1AFC Wimbledon
23 Mar 2024Crewe1 - 1AFC Wimbledon
16 Sep 2023AFC Wimbledon2 - 2Crewe
07 Jan 2023Crewe0 - 0AFC Wimbledon
25 Oct 2022AFC Wimbledon1 - 1Crewe
15 Apr 2022Crewe3 - 1AFC Wimbledon
23 Nov 2021AFC Wimbledon3 - 2Crewe
23 Jan 2021Crewe1 - 1AFC Wimbledon
19 Dec 2020AFC Wimbledon1 - 2Crewe
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.1032.3%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.4029.4%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.3542.5%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9950.2%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.7955.9%07 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:02 UTC