| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.0% | 82% | -17.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 23.2% | 76.7% |
| logistic | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Alberto Barroso Campos | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1485 | 1570 |
| Surface Elo | 1485 | 1570 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Mathys Erhard | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Thijs Boogaard | 1 - 0 | W |
| 06 Jul | H | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Jul | H | Guillaume Dalmasso | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Harry Wendelken | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Alberto Barroso Campos | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Maxime Chazal | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Alberto Barroso Campos | 0 - 2 | Joel Schwaerzler |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.22 | 82.0% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.95 | 25.3% | 29 Sep 06:15 |