| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.7% | 65% | -0.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 27.8% | 72.1% |
| logistic | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| Matias Soto | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1577 | 1665 |
| Surface Elo | 1577 | 1665 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 22 | 43 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Lautaro Midon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Sandro Kopp | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Kilian Feldbausch | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Gustavo Heide | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Bruno Fernandez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Matias Soto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Aug | A | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Igor Marcondes | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Lautaro Midon | 2 - 0 | Matias Soto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.53 | 65.4% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.40 | 41.7% | 29 Sep 06:15 |