| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.0% | 68% | -12.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 55.5% | 44.4% |
| logistic | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| Elias Ymer | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1526 | 1445 |
| Surface Elo | 1526 | 1445 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 9 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 14 Sep | H | Marat Sharipov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Luca Castelnuovo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Semen Pankin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Pavel Kotov | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Yu Hsiou Hsu | 0 - 1 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Elias Ymer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | H | Omar Jasika | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Ilya Ivashka | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | JiSung Nam | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Tung Lin Wu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Elias Ymer | 2 - 0 | Luca Castelnuovo |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.60 | 38.5% | 16 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.46 | 68.5% | 16 Sep 06:15 |