| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 84.4% | 93% | -9.1% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 20.5% | 79.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 19.1% | 80.8% |
| logistic | 15.4% | 84.6% |
| Zizou Bergs | Carlos Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1814 | 2297 |
| Surface Elo | 1814 | 2297 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.40 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Ignacio Buse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Ignacio Buse | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Vit Kopriva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Vit Kopriva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Zizou Bergs | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | Zizou Bergs |
| 24 Sep 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | Zizou Bergs |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.07 | 93.5% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 9.70 | 10.3% | 11 Oct 06:15 |