| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 70.0% | 76% | -6.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 79.5% | 20.5% |
| logistic | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| Daniel Michalski | Ivan Ivanov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1573 | 1487 |
| Surface Elo | 1573 | 1487 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | H | Giovanni Oradini | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Alessandro Bellifemine | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Lorenzo Bocchi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Laurent Lokoli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Lorenzo Carboni | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Laurent Lokoli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Manuel Mazza | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Kirill Kivattsev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Adrian Andreev | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Filip Cristian Jianu | 1 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.15 | 31.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.31 | 76.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |