| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.9% | 91% | -27.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 86.3% | 99% | -12.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 80.7% | 99% | -17.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 81% | -22.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 74.7% | 14.8% | 10.5% |
| xgboost | 67.9% | 18.8% | 13.4% |
| logistic | 76.6% | 16.1% | 7.3% |
| Paris Saint Germain | Le Mans | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1860 | 1581 |
| Surface Elo | 1860 | 1581 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Rest days | 20 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Sep | A | Marseille | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | A | Brest | 1 - 0 | W |
| 04 Sep | H | Monaco | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | Lille | 2 - 2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | Rennes | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Lorient | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Sep | H | Lens | 2 - 2 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Nice | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | Rennes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | Brest | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 13.00 | 7.7% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 8.50 | 11.8% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.17 | 85.5% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.30 | 76.9% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 23.60 | 4.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 11.68 | 8.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.12 | 89.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.25 | 80.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 4.20 | 23.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |