| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 68.2% | 80% | -11.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 17.2% | 82.8% |
| logistic | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| David Goffin | Mark Lajal | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1636 | 1742 |
| Surface Elo | 1636 | 1742 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 147 | 14 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Mark Lajal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | Thomas Faurel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Mar | H | Roberto Bautista Agut | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Feb | H | Joel Schwaerzler | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Feb | H | Giulio Zeppieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Titouan Droguet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Thomas Faurel | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | David Goffin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Titouan Droguet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Daniel Masur | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | David Goffin | 0 - 2 | Mark Lajal |
| 30 Oct 2023 | David Goffin | 2 - 1 | Mark Lajal |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.25 | 80.0% | 21 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.75 | 26.7% | 21 Sep 06:15 |