| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.4% | 57% | -2.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 81.0% | 82% | -1.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 73.3% | 75% | -2.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 49% | +5.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 50.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 23.1% | 25.2% | 51.7% |
| xgboost | 16.7% | 24.7% | 58.6% |
| logistic | 19.3% | 25.4% | 55.3% |
| Espanol | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1554 | 1772 |
| Surface Elo | 1554 | 1772 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 7 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 4 W · 5 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Malaga | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | A | Malaga | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Sep | H | Elche | 1 - 3 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Vallecano | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Osasuna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | Gimnastica Segoviana CF | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Oct | H | Man Utd | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Zaragoza | 4 - 4 | D |
| 11 Oct | A | CDA Navalcarnero | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Alaves | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Atlético Madrid | 4 - 2 | Espanol |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Espanol | 2 - 1 | Atlético Madrid |
| 29 Mar 2025 | Espanol | 1 - 1 | Atlético Madrid |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Atlético Madrid | 0 - 0 | Espanol |
| 24 May 2023 | Espanol | 3 - 3 | Atlético Madrid |
| 06 Nov 2022 | Atlético Madrid | 1 - 1 | Espanol |
| 17 Apr 2022 | Atlético Madrid | 2 - 1 | Espanol |
| 12 Sep 2021 | Espanol | 1 - 2 | Atlético Madrid |
| 01 Mar 2020 | Espanol | 1 - 1 | Atlético Madrid |
| 10 Nov 2019 | Atlético Madrid | 3 - 1 | Espanol |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.75 | 57.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.03 | 24.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.96 | 20.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |