| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.1% | 54% | +3.8% |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 38.6% | 61.4% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| logistic | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1578 | 1715 |
| Surface Elo | 1578 | 1715 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.42 | 1.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W 路 0 D |
| 29 Oct | A | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Miguel Tobon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Felipe Meligeni Alves | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Lautaro Midon | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Oct | A | Daniel Elahi Galan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Thiago Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct 2026 | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 1 - 2 | Lautaro Midon |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo | 1 - 2 | Lautaro Midon |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.84 | 54.4% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.90 | 52.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |