OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-09-28
⚽ La Liga 2 · Monday 28 September 2026, 18:30 UTC · finished
Leganes 2.00 0 - 2 2.60 Castellon
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 51.1%43%+7.8%✓ hit
DCDraw or away 75.8%73%+2.9%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 67.2%60%+7.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 53.0%52%+1.1%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS no 53.4%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson33.6%28.0%38.3%
xgboost19.8%20.6%59.7%
logistic17.0%25.8%57.1%
Inputs the models saw
LeganesCastellon
Elo (pre-match)14591610
Surface Elo14591610
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.002.60
Form trend0.30-0.40
Season points per game1.832.67
Season goals for / game1.002.00
Season goals against / game0.830.33
Rest days79
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W3 W · 1 D
Leganes: last 5
26 SepAAD Cala Pozuelo0 - 1L
20 SepHGranada3 - 2W
20 SepHGranada3 - 2W
19 SepHVallecano4 - 1W
13 SepATenerife0 - 2L
Castellon: last 5
26 SepAOrihuela CF4 - 1W
19 SepAValencia2 - 1W
19 SepHTenerife5 - 0W
19 SepHTenerife5 - 0W
12 SepAGirona2 - 1W
Head to head
16 Jan 2026Castellon2 - 0Leganes
29 Sep 2025Leganes0 - 1Castellon
06 Mar 2021Leganes0 - 0Castellon
04 Oct 2020Castellon2 - 0Leganes
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.1047.6%28 Sep 19:30
Bet3651X2draw3.5028.6%28 Sep 19:30
Bet3651X2home3.2530.8%28 Sep 19:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.8554.0%28 Sep 19:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.9551.3%28 Sep 19:30
SportyBet1X2away2.3043.5%28 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.3330.0%28 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.1032.3%28 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.8853.2%28 Sep 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8952.9%28 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 20:30 UTC