| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.2% | 62% | -0.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 86.8% | 85% | +1.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 81.6% | 79% | +2.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.6% | 71% | -25.1% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 46.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 61.2% | 21.9% | 16.9% |
| xgboost | 58.9% | 24.1% | 17.0% |
| logistic | 59.7% | 25.1% | 15.2% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | Crawley Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1519 | 1319 |
| Surface Elo | 1519 | 1319 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 4 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 17 Sep | A | AFC Wimbledon | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Peterboro | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Wycombe | 3 - 3 | D |
| 02 Sep | A | Wigan | 1 - 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Leicester | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Grimsby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Grimsby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Cheltenham | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Accrington | 2 - 3 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Northampton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Feb 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons | 0 - 0 | Crawley Town |
| 19 Aug 2025 | Crawley Town | 1 - 1 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| 29 Dec 2023 | Milton Keynes Dons | 2 - 0 | Crawley Town |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Crawley Town | 2 - 1 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| 02 Mar 2019 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 0 | Crawley Town |
| 03 Nov 2018 | Crawley Town | 0 - 4 | Milton Keynes Dons |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.40 | 18.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.75 | 21.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.48 | 67.6% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.40 | 71.4% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.90 | 34.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |