| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 80.6% | 78% | +3.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 68.3% | 31.6% |
| logistic | 84.3% | 15.7% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 2048 | 1714 |
| Surface Elo | 2048 | 1714 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.45 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.73 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 5 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Nov | H | Luca Van Assche | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Luca Van Assche | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | A | Alexander Zverev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | A | Alexander Zverev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Nov | H | Hubert Hurkacz | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Nov | A | Leo Borg | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Nov | A | Adrian Mannarino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Nov | A | Karl Friberg | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | Jurij Rodionov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | A | Lukas Pokorny | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.75 | 26.7% | 10 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.29 | 77.5% | 10 Nov 06:15 |