OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-04
NFL · Sunday 04 October 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 14 - 17 – Green Bay Packers
NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 53.0%39%+13.8%✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeAway
ensemble53.0%47.0%
Inputs the models saw
Tampa Bay BuccaneersGreen Bay Packers
playoff0.00
elo diff-0.13
form diff0.00
rest diff-0.40
home field1.00
point diff0.51
opponent strength diff-0.16
Information cutoff (UTC)2026-10-03T17:00:00+00:00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: last 5
27 SepHMinnesota Vikings16 - 23L
20 SepHCleveland Browns19 - 23L
13 SepACincinnati Bengals27 - 33L
03 JanHCarolina Panthers16 - 14W
28 DecAMiami Dolphins17 - 20L
Green Bay Packers: last 5
25 SepHAtlanta Falcons14 - 35L
20 SepANew York Jets20 - 17W
13 SepAMinnesota Vikings22 - 39L
11 JanAChicago Bears27 - 31L
04 JanAMinnesota Vikings3 - 16L
Head to head
17 Dec 2023Green Bay Packers20 - 34Tampa Bay Buccaneers
25 Sep 2022Tampa Bay Buccaneers12 - 14Green Bay Packers
24 Jan 2021Green Bay Packers26 - 31Tampa Bay Buccaneers
18 Oct 2020Tampa Bay Buccaneers38 - 10Green Bay Packers
03 Dec 2017Green Bay Packers26 - 20Tampa Bay Buccaneers
21 Dec 2014Tampa Bay Buccaneers3 - 20Green Bay Packers
20 Nov 2011Green Bay Packers35 - 26Tampa Bay Buccaneers
08 Nov 2009Tampa Bay Buccaneers38 - 28Green Bay Packers
28 Sep 2008Tampa Bay Buccaneers30 - 21Green Bay Packers
25 Sep 2005Green Bay Packers16 - 17Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Pinnacle sharp1X2home2.3941.8%04 Oct 15:20
Pinnacle sharp1X2away1.6560.6%04 Oct 15:20
Generated 2026-10-30 19:23 UTC