OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-23

🎾 ATP Challenger Lisbon, Portugal Men Singles · Friday 23 October 2026, 13:10 UTC · finished

Elmer Moller 1.20 2 - 0 1.80 Henrique Rocha

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	56.8%	64%	-6.9%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	31.8%	68.2%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	48.5%	51.4%
logistic	48.3%	51.7%

Inputs the models saw

	Elmer Moller	Henrique Rocha
Elo (pre-match)	1700	1750
Surface Elo	1700	1750
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.20	1.80
Form trend	-0.90	-0.30
Season points per game	2.00	2.57
Season goals for / game	1.56	1.86
Season goals against / game	1.22	0.57
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	2 W	0 W · 0 D

Elmer Moller: last 5

21 Oct	A	Max Alcala Gurri	2 - 1	W
19 Oct	A	Tristan Boyer	2 - 0	W
19 Oct	H	Svyatoslav Gulin	1 - 2	L
19 Oct	H	Henrique Rocha	2 - 0	W
19 Oct	H	Max Alcala Gurri	2 - 1	W

Henrique Rocha: last 5

21 Oct	A	Thiago Monteiro	2 - 1	W
19 Oct	A	Dali Blanch	2 - 0	W
19 Oct	A	Elmer Moller	0 - 2	L
19 Oct	H	Thiago Monteiro	2 - 1	W
19 Oct	A	Dali Blanch	2 - 0	W

Head to head

19 Oct 2026	Elmer Moller	2 - 0	Henrique Rocha
29 Sep 2025	Elmer Moller	2 - 1	Henrique Rocha
04 Nov 2024	Elmer Moller	2 - 0	Henrique Rocha

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.56	64.1%	23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.30	43.5%	23 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:01 UTC