| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 61.8% | 68% | -5.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| logistic | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Luka Pavlovic | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1586 | 1733 |
| Surface Elo | 1586 | 1733 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 15 Oct | H | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Mattia Bellucci | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Tristan Schoolkate | 2 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Thomas Fancutt | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Ilia Simakin | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Martin Landaluce | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Martin Landaluce | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Luka Pavlovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Luka Pavlovic | 1 - 2 | Ilia Simakin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.48 | 67.6% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |