OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-10-11

NFL · Sunday 11 October 2026, 20:05 UTC · finished

Los Angeles Chargers – 17 - 23 – Denver Broncos

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	58.1%	66%	-7.6%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	41.8%	58.2%

Inputs the models saw

	Los Angeles Chargers	Denver Broncos
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.22
form diff	-0.50
rest diff	0.00
home field	1.00
point diff	-0.52
opponent strength diff	-0.07
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-10T20:05:00+00:00

Los Angeles Chargers: last 5

04 Oct	A	Seattle Seahawks	23 - 30	L
27 Sep	A	Buffalo Bills	16 - 24	L
20 Sep	H	Las Vegas Raiders	14 - 26	L
13 Sep	H	Arizona Cardinals	14 - 26	L
12 Jan	A	New England Patriots	3 - 16	L

Denver Broncos: last 5

04 Oct	A	San Francisco 49ers	14 - 24	L
28 Sep	H	Los Angeles Rams	30 - 26	W
20 Sep	H	Jacksonville Jaguars	20 - 13	W
15 Sep	A	Kansas City Chiefs	10 - 31	L
25 Jan	H	New England Patriots	7 - 10	L

Head to head

04 Jan 2026	Denver Broncos	19 - 3	Los Angeles Chargers
21 Sep 2025	Los Angeles Chargers	23 - 20	Denver Broncos
20 Dec 2024	Los Angeles Chargers	34 - 27	Denver Broncos
13 Oct 2024	Denver Broncos	16 - 23	Los Angeles Chargers
31 Dec 2023	Denver Broncos	16 - 9	Los Angeles Chargers
10 Dec 2023	Los Angeles Chargers	7 - 24	Denver Broncos
08 Jan 2023	Denver Broncos	31 - 28	Los Angeles Chargers
18 Oct 2022	Los Angeles Chargers	19 - 16	Denver Broncos
02 Jan 2022	Los Angeles Chargers	34 - 13	Denver Broncos
28 Nov 2021	Denver Broncos	28 - 13	Los Angeles Chargers

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	2.62	38.2%	11 Oct 18:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.54	64.9%	11 Oct 18:20

Generated 2026-10-30 19:23 UTC