| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 42.3% | 36% | +6.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 73.9% | 78% | -4.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 56.6% | 48% | +8.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 64% | -8.7% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.1% | 26.3% | 34.6% |
| xgboost | 38.2% | 29.1% | 32.7% |
| logistic | 43.9% | 27.0% | 29.1% |
| Carlisle | Salford | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1568 | 1585 |
| Surface Elo | 1568 | 1585 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 2 W · 3 D |
| 31 Oct | A | Altrincham | 4 - 2 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Altrincham | 4 - 2 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Harrogate | 3 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Harrogate | 3 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Solihull | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Exeter | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Exeter City | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Oct | A | Walsall | 4 - 2 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Bristol Rvs | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Bristol Rovers | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 May 2025 | Carlisle | 2 - 2 | Salford |
| 09 Nov 2024 | Salford | 0 - 1 | Carlisle |
| 29 Apr 2023 | Carlisle | 2 - 3 | Salford |
| 19 Nov 2022 | Salford | 1 - 4 | Carlisle |
| 01 Feb 2022 | Salford | 2 - 1 | Carlisle |
| 04 Sep 2021 | Carlisle | 2 - 1 | Salford |
| 20 Feb 2021 | Salford | 1 - 1 | Carlisle |
| 02 Dec 2020 | Carlisle | 2 - 1 | Salford |
| 24 Aug 2019 | Carlisle | 2 - 2 | Salford |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.56 | 64.1% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 07 Nov 06:15 |