| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 70.0% | 82% | -11.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 74.5% | 92% | -17.8% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 65.2% | 91% | -26.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 76% | -9.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 66.8% | 33% | +33.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.4% | 25.0% | 30.9% |
| xgboost | 19.2% | 33.7% | 47.1% |
| logistic | 13.3% | 22.5% | 64.3% |
| Elche | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1459 | 1766 |
| Surface Elo | 1459 | 1766 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 5 W · 3 D |
| 12 Sep | A | Athletic Club | 1 - 1 | D |
| 07 Sep | H | Sociedad | 2 - 3 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | Santander | 2 - 3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | Barcelona | 0 - 5 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | La Coruna | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Vallecano | 4 - 1 | W |
| 04 Sep | A | Betis | 0 - 1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Malaga | 4 - 0 | W |
| 26 Aug | H | Sociedad | 4 - 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | Espanol | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Real Madrid | 4 - 1 | Elche |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Elche | 2 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 15 Feb 2023 | Real Madrid | 4 - 0 | Elche |
| 19 Oct 2022 | Elche | 0 - 3 | Real Madrid |
| 23 Jan 2022 | Real Madrid | 2 - 2 | Elche |
| 30 Oct 2021 | Elche | 1 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 13 Mar 2021 | Real Madrid | 2 - 1 | Elche |
| 30 Dec 2020 | Elche | 1 - 1 | Real Madrid |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.20 | 83.3% | 15 Sep 20:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 7.50 | 13.3% | 15 Sep 20:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 12.00 | 8.3% | 15 Sep 20:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.33 | 75.2% | 15 Sep 20:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.40 | 29.4% | 15 Sep 20:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.22 | 82.0% | 15 Sep 09:05 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 8.05 | 12.4% | 15 Sep 09:05 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 12.68 | 7.9% | 15 Sep 09:05 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.32 | 75.8% | 15 Sep 09:05 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.50 | 28.6% | 15 Sep 09:05 |