| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.1% | 75% | -10.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 74.8% | 25.1% |
| logistic | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Abdullah Shelbayh | Daniil Ostapenkov | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1557 | 1519 |
| Surface Elo | 1557 | 1519 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | H | Li Tu | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Dylan Dietrich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Mitchell Krueger | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Aidan Mayo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Daniil Ostapenkov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Raphael Perot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Quinn Vandecasteele | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Raphael Perot | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Timo Legout | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Abdullah Shelbayh | 2 - 0 | Daniil Ostapenkov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.15 | 31.8% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 01 Oct 06:15 |