| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 64.9% | 44% | +20.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.7% | 40.6% |
| xgboost | 21.6% | 77.6% |
| logistic | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | Pittsburgh Penguins | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1555 | 1506 |
| Surface Elo | 1555 | 1506 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 144 | 154 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 09 May | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 08 May | H | Carolina Hurricanes | 1 - 4 | L |
| 04 May | A | Carolina Hurricanes | 2 - 3 | L |
| 03 May | A | Carolina Hurricanes | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Apr | H | Pittsburgh Penguins | 1 - 0 | W |
| 29 Apr | A | Philadelphia Flyers | 0 - 1 | L |
| 27 Apr | H | Philadelphia Flyers | 3 - 2 | W |
| 26 Apr | A | Philadelphia Flyers | 4 - 2 | W |
| 22 Apr | A | Philadelphia Flyers | 2 - 5 | L |
| 20 Apr | H | Philadelphia Flyers | 0 - 3 | L |
| 29 Apr 2026 | Philadelphia Flyers | 1 - 0 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 27 Apr 2026 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 3 - 2 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 26 Apr 2026 | Philadelphia Flyers | 2 - 4 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 22 Apr 2026 | Philadelphia Flyers | 5 - 2 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 20 Apr 2026 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 0 - 3 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 19 Apr 2026 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 2 - 3 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 07 Mar 2026 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 3 - 4 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 16 Jan 2026 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 6 - 3 | Philadelphia Flyers |
| 02 Dec 2025 | Philadelphia Flyers | 1 - 5 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 28 Oct 2025 | Philadelphia Flyers | 3 - 2 | Pittsburgh Penguins |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 1.72 | 58.1% | 30 Sep 19:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 2.26 | 44.2% | 30 Sep 19:20 |