OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-15

🎾 ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles · Thursday 15 October 2026, 10:00 UTC · finished

Alexander Zverev 1.80 2 - 0 1.80 Alex De Minaur

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	68.7%	no line		✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	62.2%	37.8%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	72.3%	27.6%
logistic	60.2%	39.8%

Inputs the models saw

	Alexander Zverev	Alex De Minaur
Elo (pre-match)	2170	2048
Surface Elo	2170	2048
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.80
Form trend	-0.90	-0.90
Season points per game	2.50	2.63
Season goals for / game	1.83	1.50
Season goals against / game	0.67	0.38
Rest days	2	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	7 W	2 W · 0 D

Alexander Zverev: last 5

15 Oct	A	Alex De Minaur	2 - 0	W
13 Oct	H	Alexander Bublik	2 - 1	W
13 Oct	A	Alexander Bublik	2 - 1	W
11 Oct	H	Quentin Halys	2 - 1	W
11 Oct	H	Quentin Halys	2 - 1	W

Alex De Minaur: last 5

15 Oct	H	Alexander Zverev	0 - 2	L
13 Oct	H	Karen Khachanov	2 - 0	W
13 Oct	H	Karen Khachanov	2 - 0	W
11 Oct	H	Rei Sakamoto	2 - 0	W
11 Oct	H	Rei Sakamoto	2 - 0	W

Head to head

15 Oct 2026	Alex De Minaur	0 - 2	Alexander Zverev
27 May 2024	Alex De Minaur	0 - 3	Alexander Zverev
04 Mar 2024	Alex De Minaur	1 - 2	Alexander Zverev
01 Jan 2024	Alex De Minaur	2 - 1	Alexander Zverev
09 May 2022	Alex De Minaur	0 - 2	Alexander Zverev
25 Oct 2021	Alex De Minaur	1 - 2	Alexander Zverev
06 Jan 2020	Alex De Minaur	2 - 1	Alexander Zverev
25 Feb 2019	Alex De Minaur	0 - 2	Alexander Zverev
08 Oct 2018	Alex De Minaur	0 - 2	Alexander Zverev
30 Jul 2018	Alex De Minaur	0 - 2	Alexander Zverev

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
No bookmaker lines stored.

Generated 2026-10-30 15:56 UTC