| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 40.3% | 36% | +4.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.7% | 77% | -1.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 53.3% | 49% | +4.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.3% | 72% | +13.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 68.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 35.4% | 24.3% | 40.3% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | ||
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | ||
| Stuttgart | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1704 | 1806 |
| Surface Elo | 1704 | 1806 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.67 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 4 W · 2 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Regensburg | 3 - 3 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Hoffenheim | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Sep | H | FC Koln | 4 - 1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | Bayern München | 1 - 5 | L |
| 16 May | A | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 - 2 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Paderborn | 3 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Hoffenheim | 3 - 2 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | Hamburg | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 May | A | Werder Bremen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 May | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 - 2 | W |
| 04 Apr 2026 | Stuttgart | 0 - 2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 - 3 | Stuttgart |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 - 2 | Stuttgart |
| 22 Sep 2024 | Stuttgart | 5 - 1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 06 Apr 2024 | Borussia Dortmund | 0 - 1 | Stuttgart |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Stuttgart | 2 - 1 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 15 Apr 2023 | Stuttgart | 3 - 3 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 22 Oct 2022 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 - 0 | Stuttgart |
| 08 Apr 2022 | Stuttgart | 0 - 2 | Borussia Dortmund |
| 20 Nov 2021 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 - 1 | Stuttgart |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.36 | 73.5% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.20 | 31.2% | 19 Sep 17:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.69 | 37.2% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.99 | 25.1% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.51 | 39.8% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.37 | 73.0% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.20 | 31.2% | 19 Sep 06:16 |