| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 67.5% | 72% | -4.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 29.1% | 70.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 38.8% | 61.1% |
| logistic | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| Elmer Moller | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1661 | 1768 |
| Surface Elo | 1661 | 1768 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 0.25 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Zsombor Piros | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Lukas Neumayer | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Marvin Moeller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Miguel Damas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Andrea Pellegrino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | Matej Dodig |
| 08 Apr 2024 | Elmer Moller | 0 - 2 | Matej Dodig |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.39 | 71.9% | 11 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 11 Oct 06:15 |