| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 76.8% | 78% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 76.7% | 23.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 77.9% | 22.1% |
| logistic | 67.1% | 32.9% |
| Jay Clarke | John Sperle | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1605 | 1400 |
| Surface Elo | 1605 | 1400 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 1 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Giuseppe La Vela | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | John Sperle | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | H | Felix Gill | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Jay Clarke | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Sergi Fita Juan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Mar | H | Martin Krumich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Jun | A | Blaise Bicknell | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Jun | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Jay Clarke | 2 - 0 | John Sperle |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.45 | 29.0% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.28 | 78.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |