| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.3% | 68% | -2.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.4% | 37.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| logistic | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| Andrea Pellegrino | Lorenzo Giustino | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1679 | 1563 |
| Surface Elo | 1679 | 1563 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 7 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Matej Dodig | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Valerio Aboian | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | H | Mika Petkovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Zsombor Piros | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Michael Vrbensky | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Andrea Pellegrino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Christian Langmo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Andrea Pellegrino | 1 - 2 | Lorenzo Giustino |
| 23 May 2022 | Andrea Pellegrino | 2 - 0 | Lorenzo Giustino |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.45 | 69.0% | 13 Oct 06:15 |