| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.0% | 59% | -10.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.4% | 80% | -3.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 63.0% | 78% | -15.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 59% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 18.9% | 22.1% | 59.0% |
| xgboost | 33.3% | 26.1% | 40.7% |
| logistic | 36.2% | 28.6% | 35.1% |
| Lincoln | West Ham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1662 | 1666 |
| Surface Elo | 1662 | 1666 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.22 | 1.78 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.78 | 2.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.22 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Sheffield Utd | 0 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Swansea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Swansea | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Bristol City | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Braintree Town | 4 - 2 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | QPR | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | H | QPR | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | A | Millwall | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Millwall | 2 - 2 | D |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.62 | 61.7% | 14 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 14 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 5.25 | 19.1% | 14 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.88 | 53.2% | 14 Oct 20:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 14 Oct 20:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.75 | 57.1% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.06 | 24.6% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.70 | 21.3% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.74 | 57.5% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 14 Oct 06:15 |