| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.6% | 79% | -15.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 76.1% | 23.8% |
| logistic | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| Nuno Borges | Facundo Diaz Acosta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1859 | 1805 |
| Surface Elo | 1859 | 1805 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 22 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Learner Tien | 0 - 3 | L |
| 20 Aug | A | Brandon Nakashima | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Nuno Borges | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | H | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Dusan Lajovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Sep | A | Dusan Lajovic | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Oct 2026 | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 0 - 2 | Nuno Borges |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.26 | 79.4% | 07 Oct 06:15 |