| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.0% | 56% | -2.6% | |
| DC | Home or away selected | 76.7% | 73% | +3.3% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 69.1% | 73% | -3.4% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 48% | +14.9% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.5% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.4% | 25.0% | 30.9% |
| xgboost | 63.2% | 17.7% | 19.1% |
| logistic | 52.4% | 26.5% | 21.1% |
| Napoli | Bologna | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1696 | 1572 |
| Surface Elo | 1696 | 1572 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 3 W · 3 D |
| 05 Sep | A | Inter | 2 - 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Como | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Genoa | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 May | H | Udinese | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 May | A | Pisa | 3 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Sassuolo | 2 - 2 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | Atalanta | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | Lazio | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 May | H | Inter | 3 - 3 | D |
| 17 May | A | Atalanta | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 May 2026 | Napoli | 2 - 3 | Bologna |
| 09 Nov 2025 | Bologna | 2 - 0 | Napoli |
| 07 Apr 2025 | Bologna | 1 - 1 | Napoli |
| 25 Aug 2024 | Napoli | 3 - 0 | Bologna |
| 11 May 2024 | Napoli | 0 - 2 | Bologna |
| 24 Sep 2023 | Bologna | 0 - 0 | Napoli |
| 28 May 2023 | Bologna | 2 - 2 | Napoli |
| 16 Oct 2022 | Napoli | 3 - 2 | Bologna |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Bologna | 0 - 2 | Napoli |
| 28 Oct 2021 | Napoli | 3 - 0 | Bologna |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.60 | 27.8% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.80 | 55.6% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.73 | 57.8% | 13 Sep 19:39 |