| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 60.4% | 44% | +16.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 31.2% | 68.8% |
| logistic | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Juncheng Shang | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1701 | 1759 |
| Surface Elo | 1701 | 1759 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Sebastian Baez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Adrian Mannarino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | Lorenzo Sonego | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Juncheng Shang | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | H | Jenson Brooksby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Jenson Brooksby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Brandon Nakashima | 0 - 3 | L |
| 27 Aug | A | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 Oct 2026 | Juncheng Shang | 2 - 1 | Sebastian Baez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.66 | 60.2% | 30 Sep 06:15 |