| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.0% | 60% | -7.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.7% | 82% | -5.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 67.9% | 79% | -11.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 49.9% | 46% | +3.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 52.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 17.9% | 24.1% | 58.0% |
| xgboost | 32.5% | 23.1% | 44.5% |
| logistic | 24.4% | 27.3% | 48.3% |
| Shrewsbury | Stockport | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1386 | 1557 |
| Surface Elo | 1386 | 1557 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Colchester | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Colchester | 2 - 2 | D |
| 22 Sep | A | Tranmere | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Peterborough United | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Peterboro | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Sheffield Weds | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Sheffield Weds | 0 - 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Leicester | 3 - 4 | L |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Stockport | 1 - 0 | Shrewsbury |
| 01 Oct 2024 | Shrewsbury | 0 - 2 | Stockport |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.66 | 60.2% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.70 | 21.3% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.63 | 61.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.25 | 44.4% | 06 Oct 06:15 |