| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 50.4% | 43% | +7.8% | |
| DC | Home or away | 76.2% | 78% | -1.4% | |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 65.1% | 58% | +6.9% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 59% | -1.6% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 59.1% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 25.7% | 24.9% | 49.4% |
| xgboost | 26.8% | 21.8% | 51.4% |
| logistic | 26.9% | 25.8% | 47.2% |
| Valladolid | Castellon | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1423 | 1618 |
| Surface Elo | 1423 | 1618 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.80 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 08 Nov | A | Sp Gijon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Nov | A | Sporting Gijon | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Nov | H | Leganes | 4 - 3 | W |
| 02 Nov | H | Leganes | 4 - 3 | W |
| 29 Oct | A | CD Covadonga | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Nov | H | Club Deportiva Minera | 3 - 0 | W |
| 08 Nov | H | SCR Pena Deportiva | 0 - 1 | L |
| 01 Nov | A | Burgos | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Nov | A | Burgos | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Elche | 5 - 1 | W |
| 08 Feb 2026 | Valladolid | 0 - 4 | Castellon |
| 22 Aug 2025 | Castellon | 0 - 1 | Valladolid |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.35 | 42.5% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.85 | 35.1% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.69 | 59.2% | 12 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.10 | 47.6% | 12 Nov 06:15 |