OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-07
⚽ Primeira Liga · Saturday 07 November 2026, 20:30 UTC · finished
Sp Lisbon 1.60 1 - 0 2.00 Moreirense
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 76.6%87%-10.4%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 91.8%100%-8.2%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 91.0%99%-8.2%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 57.1%69%-12.3%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 54.9%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson80.3%12.2%7.5%
xgboost74.1%16.2%9.7%
logistic82.7%13.2%4.2%
Inputs the models saw
Sp LisbonMoreirense
Elo (pre-match)18301521
Surface Elo18301521
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.602.00
Form trend-0.30-0.20
Season points per game2.101.40
Season goals for / game2.301.30
Season goals against / game1.101.70
Rest days87
Head-to-head (last 10)8 W1 W · 1 D
Sp Lisbon: last 5
30 OctACasa Pia2 - 0W
25 OctHAcademico Viseu1 - 2L
09 OctASp Braga3 - 1W
19 SepHArouca2 - 2D
13 SepAFamalicao1 - 1D
Moreirense: last 5
31 OctHEstrela2 - 1W
31 OctHEstrela2 - 1W
25 OctAEstoril3 - 1W
25 OctAEstoril3 - 1W
17 OctAAVS Futebol SAD0 - 1L
Head to head
21 Feb 2026Moreirense0 - 3Sp Lisbon
22 Sep 2025Sp Lisbon3 - 0Moreirense
18 Apr 2025Sp Lisbon3 - 1Moreirense
05 Dec 2024Moreirense2 - 1Sp Lisbon
19 Feb 2024Moreirense0 - 2Sp Lisbon
17 Sep 2023Sp Lisbon3 - 0Moreirense
14 Mar 2022Moreirense0 - 2Sp Lisbon
23 Oct 2021Sp Lisbon1 - 0Moreirense
05 Apr 2021Moreirense1 - 1Sp Lisbon
28 Nov 2020Sp Lisbon2 - 1Moreirense
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away19.005.3%07 Nov 20:30
Bet3651X2draw7.5013.3%07 Nov 20:30
Bet3651X2home1.1090.9%07 Nov 20:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.4071.4%07 Nov 20:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.8834.7%07 Nov 20:30
Generated 2026-11-12 22:04 UTC