| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.6% | 64% | -0.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 62.8% | 37.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 65.4% | 34.5% |
| logistic | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| Bernard Tomic | Fajing Sun | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1639 | 1589 |
| Surface Elo | 1639 | 1589 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | H | Yuta Shimizu | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Fajing Sun | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Fajing Sun | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Pavel Kotov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Sep | H | Binda, Alexander | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Bernard Tomic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | H | Roman Safiullin | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Matthew Dellavedova | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | Binda, Alexander | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 1 | Fajing Sun |
| 23 Sep 2026 | Bernard Tomic | 0 - 2 | Fajing Sun |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.63 | 61.4% | 29 Sep 06:15 |