| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.7% | 46% | +1.7% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 73.7% | 77% | -3.6% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.0% | 65% | -3.0% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 60% | -1.3% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 55.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.0% | 34.9% | 38.0% |
| xgboost | 41.9% | 33.2% | 24.8% |
| logistic | 44.2% | 28.9% | 26.9% |
| Shrewsbury | Exeter | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1386 | 1406 |
| Surface Elo | 1386 | 1406 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.22 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.56 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 2 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Stockport | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Grimsby | 2 - 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Colchester | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | H | Colchester | 2 - 2 | D |
| 06 Oct | H | Oxford | 2 - 2 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Rotherham | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Rotherham | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Bristol Rovers | 0 - 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Bristol Rvs | 0 - 1 | L |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Exeter | 2 - 0 | Shrewsbury |
| 17 Oct 2024 | Shrewsbury | 0 - 2 | Exeter |
| 12 Mar 2024 | Shrewsbury | 0 - 3 | Exeter |
| 28 Nov 2023 | Exeter | 0 - 0 | Shrewsbury |
| 14 Feb 2023 | Exeter | 0 - 0 | Shrewsbury |
| 13 Sep 2022 | Shrewsbury | 3 - 2 | Exeter |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.05 | 48.8% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.15 | 46.5% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.67 | 59.9% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.50 | 28.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.66 | 60.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |