| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.6% | 43% | +6.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.7% | 73% | +1.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 63.4% | 61% | +2.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 48% | +4.4% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.3% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.4% | 27.6% | 40.0% |
| xgboost | 29.5% | 27.6% | 42.9% |
| logistic | 27.7% | 29.2% | 43.0% |
| Genoa | Fiorentina | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1565 | 1645 |
| Surface Elo | 1565 | 1645 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 5 W · 5 D |
| 02 Oct | A | Rapid Bucuresti 1923 | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Parma | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Frosinone | 1 - 1 | D |
| 04 Sep | H | Como | 1 - 4 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | Lazio | 0 - 1 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Napoli | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Sep | A | Venezia | 4 - 2 | W |
| 05 Sep | H | Torino | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | Frosinone | 0 - 3 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | Roma | 0 - 4 | L |
| 10 May 2026 | Fiorentina | 0 - 0 | Genoa |
| 09 Nov 2025 | Genoa | 2 - 2 | Fiorentina |
| 02 Feb 2025 | Fiorentina | 2 - 1 | Genoa |
| 31 Oct 2024 | Genoa | 0 - 1 | Fiorentina |
| 15 Apr 2024 | Fiorentina | 1 - 1 | Genoa |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Genoa | 1 - 4 | Fiorentina |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Fiorentina | 6 - 0 | Genoa |
| 18 Sep 2021 | Genoa | 1 - 2 | Fiorentina |
| 03 Apr 2021 | Genoa | 1 - 1 | Fiorentina |
| 07 Dec 2020 | Fiorentina | 1 - 1 | Genoa |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.30 | 30.3% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.20 | 45.5% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.67 | 59.9% | 10 Oct 14:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.36 | 29.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.28 | 30.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.80 | 55.6% | 10 Oct 06:15 |