| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 73.1% | 78% | -5.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 80.9% | 19.0% |
| logistic | 64.7% | 35.3% |
| Martin Landaluce | Keegan Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1714 | 1578 |
| Surface Elo | 1714 | 1578 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Ilia Simakin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Mattia Bellucci | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Liam Draxl | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Keegan Smith | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jie Cui | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Stefanos Sakellaridis | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Martin Landaluce | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Vit Kopriva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Stefanos Sakellaridis | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Hiroki Moriya | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Keegan Smith | 1 - 2 | Martin Landaluce |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.45 | 29.0% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.28 | 78.1% | 15 Oct 06:15 |